If we reduce carbon dioxide (CO2), will the climate come back? A new study led by Prof. Jin-Soo Kim and his postdoc, Dr. Hyo-Jeong Kim, found that Southeast Asia, Europe, and Northern Africa may experience more severe fire activity even in climate simulation with reduced CO2 concentrations. It is mainly due to atmospheric dryness maintained by climatic inertia. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO2 emissions in 68% of global regions due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO2 levels. These findings highlight that even under global cooling from negative emissions, increased fire activity may reinforce the fire-carbon-climate feedback loop and result in further socio-economic damage. This result supports that fire emissions will require stronger mitigation policies than expected to achieve the target emission pathways for 1.5?2?°C warming, as it can cancel out some mitigation efforts. Therefore, fire management could be a robust and reliable mitigation action to prevent substantial carbon emissions.

This research article is published in Nature Communications and highlighted by the editor.